Corona 19 is expected to bring about many
changes across the economy and across all sectors of society.
In the wake of the Corona 19 crisis,
comparable to the Great Depression, Signs of the reorganization of the
international economic, financial, social, etc. situation (also it is called as
Reshaping) are appearing. Recently, foreign analysts and scholars have made a
series of claims that the world before and after Corona 19 will be
distinguished.
The Eurasia Group defined the Corona 19 as a "Chapter Break," which divides the 2.0 era with
Globalization 1.0, while McKinsey & Co. assessed the world to enter the
"Next Normal" after the Corona 19. Former U.S. Secretary of
State Henry Kissinger also diagnosed that the political and economic upheaval
triggered by the Corona 19 incident will continue for generations.
Schism
Corona 19 is expected to expose the
vulnerability of globalization, accelerating the return of production bases(A.K.A.
Reshoring), cracks in Europe, and infinite competition between the U.S. and
China. Although cost was prioritized 30 years ago in the deployment of supply
chains, it is highly likely that the portion of the value chain in the country
will gradually expand as it turns to value risk and resilience through the
U.S.-China trade dispute and Corona 19. If developed countries such as the U.S.
accelerate their Reshoring, it will inevitably deal a blow to the beneficiaries
of the U.S.-China trade dispute, such as Vietnam.
Shift of economic and financial center of the world
There are growing calls within the United
States that the Corona 19 incident is a "tipping point" that marks
the beginning of the weakening of the dollar's international status and the
reduction of Western influence.
The implementation of the largest-ever
stimulus package by the United States could lead to a modern version of the
Triffin Dilema, in which inflation and debt growth lead to a weakening of the
dollar's confidence. On the other hand, it is also worth noting the possibility
of the Western-oriented global economy moving to Asia in the wake of the Corona
19 crisis. This argument was supported by that while the top five countries,
which were considered well-prepared for last November's Pandemics, currently
account for about 40 percent of the world's Corona 19 confirmed number, Asia is
expected to have fast resilience based on dynamism and agility.
Changes in behavior of consumption and investment
Even after social distinctions are over,
non-face-to-face activities are expected to become routine and practices for
consumption and investment will change, especially among young people. As the
scope of online activities expands to telecommuting, telemedicine education,
etc., the speed of digital transformation will increase, resulting in fierce
competition for leadership in digital payments and trade among major countries.
In addition, the global health crisis is likely to show a tendency to value
price-to-consumption satisfaction in determining purchases and to be more
reluctant to take financial risk-averse than previous generations due to the
growing need to prepare for future shocks caused by falling incomes and job
insecurity.
Externalization of social fragility
Amid the spread of Corona 19, potential
structural inequality in terms of economic impact and access to medical care
could increase the instability of the international community due to increased
hatred of other races and religions. Low-wage service workers and vulnerable
people who have difficulty working non-face-to-face are exposed to greater
economic risks, which will stimulate internal conflicts within society. On the
other hand, it should also be noted that the controversy over racial
discrimination began in the West, targeting Asians, and has recently spread to
certain racial (black) and religious (Islamic) abhorrence in China and India.
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